With the Trump administration’s sweeping cuts to federal employment underway, Fairfax County, Virginia, is preparing for a worst-case scenario that local officials warn could have a deeper economic impact than the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a report by local news outlet FFXNOW on April 9, the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority (FCEDA) has raised concerns that the scale of federal job losses could be far worse than initially anticipated.
Fairfax County is home to approximately 80,000 federal government employees. In addition, about 45,000 military, civilian, and contractor employees work at Fort Belvoir, a major U.S. military base located in the county. Another 70,000 federal employees live outside the county but commute to Fairfax for work. In total, an estimated 150,000 individuals connected to federal employment could be affected by the ongoing cuts.
So far, around 14,000 federal employees living in Fairfax County have been confirmed laid off, along with 86 government contractors. However, these numbers only reflect verified reports, and the actual number of job losses may be significantly higher when unconfirmed or indirect impacts are considered.
Initially, the county had projected a 15% reduction in federal employment, but more recent estimates suggest that cuts may reach 20% or even 30%. In response, county officials are preparing for a worst-case scenario, acknowledging the potential for severe economic consequences.
If layoffs reach 15%, Fairfax County could lose approximately 28,496 jobs and see a tax revenue decline of $109.9 million. Should the cuts escalate to 30%, the number of unemployed residents could rise to 85,489, leading to a projected loss of $329.9 million in county tax revenue. Such losses would significantly impact public services, education funding, and infrastructure projects.
Officials are calling for urgent planning and support, warning that the ripple effects could be widespread—affecting housing, local businesses, and the broader Northern Virginia economy. As the Trump administration continues its aggressive downsizing of the federal workforce, Fairfax County is bracing for what could be a profound and lasting economic shift.