There are growing concerns that the large-scale crackdown on illegal immigrants, which began with the inauguration of the second term of the Donald Trump administration, could push New York state’s economy into a recession. New York Governor Kathy Hochul warned on the 21st, while announcing the “2026 Fiscal Year Budget,” that “there are over 470,000 ‘undocumented workers’ in the state,” which constitutes 15% of the state’s labour force, or 1 in 6 people. She added that if a crackdown on illegal immigrants were implemented in New York, it could push the state’s economy into a recession.
According to economic outlook data released that day, the state is home to an estimated 471,000 undocumented workers. The potential deportation of these workers could exacerbate the state’s population decline and labour shortages. Most illegal immigrants in the state are employed in industries like construction, housekeeping, cooking, home and personal care assistance, cleaning, and delivery. If deported, there would be no immediate replacement workers, leading to downturns in these critical industries. Governor Hochul warned, “If there is no new influx of immigrants following the deportation of illegal immigrants, there will be significant difficulties in both wages and employment due to population decline and labour shortages.” She also noted that ongoing construction projects may face delays, given that 70% of construction workers in the state are foreign-born.
The Trump administration’s second-term plan targets illegal immigrants with criminal records, with a primary focus on “sanctuary cities.” The crackdown is expected to start in Chicago, Illinois, followed by New York City, New York, Los Angeles, California, Denver, Colorado, and Miami, Florida. Tom Homan, the “border czar” of the Trump administration, confirmed in an interview on the 21st that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has begun nationwide enforcement efforts. Homan clarified that the primary target is people who are in the U.S. illegally, have criminal convictions, and pose a threat to public safety. However, in “sanctuary cities,” where local authorities are less cooperative, ICE officials are forced to track down illegal immigrants independently. Homan also stated that if ICE encounters illegal immigrants without criminal records during their operations, they will still make arrests.